Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
