How This Unusual Campaign Broke the Typical Coach of the Year Mold.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.
On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.
However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers rising together. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.
Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.
The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.
In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!
Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.
What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.
The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.
Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.
Still
