The mean number of per-day murders each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new government figures. But, public safety experts have advised that homicide numbers may not signal enhanced countrywide stability.
Marked Drop in Per-Day Numbers
Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President took the presidency in September. This information was provided by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in killings that we’ve had in these months is extremely notable,” the President remarked, adding that in November the least number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.
Recent Background and Government Strategy
Fierce cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.
That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an apparently steeper drop in homicides in the current year.
At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”
The key elements of the President's security plan include:
- Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
- Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
- Enhanced cooperation between government departments.
Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations
Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is particularly true considering the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.
“It would be excellent news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”
According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.
“Data on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to properly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also concerning because it may hide days when there were especially high numbers of murders.
“Using the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.
Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress
Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.
“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Public Anger
However in spite of these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.
Weeks after, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.
“The federal government presents [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst concluded.
